Jay Squawking

The second biggest mistake NBC has made is to give Jay Leno five nights a week at 10 p.m. to do his little show. NBC's biggest mistake was to give the Tonight Show to that unfunny and talentless Conan O'brien. It is amazing that Jeff Zucker, who has really turned into the worst programmer of all time, is being allowed by GE to make such boneheaded mistakes.

Leno has been a success in late night. His ratings have remained high and the money has rolled into NBC's coffers. While Leno is no class act like David Letterman, he seems to appeal to the corn fed viewer and that is what makes him a winner.

So why lose him? It seems that if they didn't give Conan the "Tonight Show" by 2009 he would to be free to shop his act around. I'd say, let him go, but NBC saw him as too valuable. In what universe? That little upstart Craig Ferguson over on CBS is a much funnier and a better talent and is beating Conan in the ratings on a regular basis. What is so hot about Conan? Nothing comes to mind.

Even Zucker had to realize that getting rid of Leno was turning out to be one big mistake. Conan was bound to screw up the slot and diminish the late night profit center on a network that was in 4th place. Now Leno could go across town. There was no guarantee that he would be a sucess somewhere else, but he could knock Conan completely out of the game and probably push Letterman into number one. Not that Dave's numbers would go up, it's just that everyone elses would get chopped up.

So how to keep Leno? Enter this hair-brained scheme. Remember NBC is number 4 and not making the big bucks. By placing Leno across the board they don't have to pay for five much more expensive hour long dramas at about 3 million a week each. Leno's show will cost about 2 million a week, saving them at least 13 million dollars a week or over a cool 300 million a year. In the last several years a a lot of the hour long shows (ie:"My Worst Enemy") have done poorly for NBC. Some of dramas have done OK, and they are the shows they will most likely save and move to other time-slots. Five hours of programs will get cancelled. Maybe just 4 since "ER" is through at the end of this year. That's less jobs for people in Hollywood. I guess we are in fact seeing the first of the TV network layoffs.

Remember also that NBC a few years back decided to go with mostly reality shows in the 8 p.m. hour. While they have rolled some of that back you still have fat people losing weight and models opening briefcases. In short NBC is becoming a cable network.

It is said that in 2002 when David Letterman was contemplating a departure from CBS that NBC offered him a deal similar to Jay's but in the 8:00 time slot. Dave turned them down and stayed put at 31 million a year.....1 million more than Jay is getting for this deal.

The biggest part of this crap shoot is that Jay will be up against high rated programs on the other networks not just other talk shows like he is now. I like Jay. He's a great guy, but his "Tonight Show" has been embarrassing and it's amazing that he has done as well as he has with such a poorly executed show. Remember too that in late-night he is number one in a smaller universe with less audience to win over than that of prime-time. Will that be large enough to beat CSI?

Is this the death knell for NBC, the company that invented the network back in the days of radio? Will the Peacock be shot and served at the next Jeff Zucker executive dinner? Tune in to find out.